Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
